STOCKS

[David Mauldin]

  Monday I am officially a member of the "Lead to Gold" investment club. They maintain investments in ten stocks at a pretty conservative standard. They are your stable well established companies, General Electric, Proctor and Gamble etc... Everyone in the club, about 15 people, seem to be just interested in learning the ropes. I get the feeling that they have much more invested in their personal portfolio's.  I hope to learn as much as I can. As you all know, right now the stock market sucks!  But according to some people, "NOW IS THE TIME TO GET IN!"    I hope they are right!    What do you think?  Got any hot tips?

[vernecarty]

  Monday I am officially a member of the "Lead to Gold" investment club. They maintain investments in ten stocks at a pretty conservative standard. They are your stable well established companies, General Electric, Proctor and Gamble etc... Everyone in the club, about 15 people, seem to be just interested in learning the ropes. I get the feeling that they have much more invested in their personal portfolio's.  I hope to learn as much as I can. As you all know, right now the stock market sucks!  But according to some people, "NOW IS THE TIME TO GET IN!"    I hope they are right!    What do you think?  Got any hot tips?

I would watch closely what the DOW does on Monday. If it continues to dive, that would be a very good sign as it would signal a long-needed correction was taking place.  Have you seen some of the ridicuolus P.E.s being tossed around?
I would like to see it test the floor at around 9200 to 9500 and if that happens I think it might be a good buying opportunity for some better stocks caught in the down draft. It follwed this pattern when it hit in the high sevens a while back.
If it bounces up, it will be because of speculation and I would definitely short it...big time!
Verne

[Mark C.]

Hi David!

  My favorite investment manager was a guy who came to work everyday wearing flip-flops and shorts!  He didn't study fundamentals or read charts.  Instead, he read the National Enquirer while at work with his feet up on the desk!

  His one strategy was to go the opposite way that the market was going.  He was a complete contrarian in his style and his fund made money!  He seemed to understand that the market always overreacts, based on either fear or greed, and that by not running with the herd he could make some money.

  Here is my one stock pick of the week: Oregon Steel (OS) down .98 on Friday to $17.95------ big overreaction to a fear that steel is starting a cycle down, but this company is making good money with a great P/E of 5.98!

                             God Bless,  Mark C.

[David Mauldin]

Hey thanks!  Boy seems like you guys do your homework!

[vernecarty]

Hi David!

  My favorite investment manager was a guy who came to work everyday wearing flip-flops and shorts!  He didn't study fundamentals or read charts.  Instead, he read the National Enquirer while at work with his feet up on the desk!

  His one strategy was to go the opposite way that the market was going.  He was a complete contrarian in his style and his fund made money!  He seemed to understand that the market always overreacts, based on either fear or greed, and that by not running with the herd he could make some money.

  Here is my one stock pick of the week: Oregon Steel (OS) down .98 on Friday to $17.95------ big overreaction to a fear that steel is starting a cycle down, but this company is making good money with a great P/E of 5.98!

                             God Bless,  Mark C.

Contrary indicators are particularly interesting when it comes to options in the currency market.
Last early Spring I read in the Financial Times that there was an all time record number of contracts shorting the dollar against the Euro. I remember getting a strong feeling in my gut that somebody was going to pull the plug.
There were some very big names sitting on some of those contracts and by all indications it seemed a one-way bet.
There are some very powerful forces manipulating these markets let me tell you.
The anticpated weakness of the dollar has certainly subsequently been borne out but all those contracts expired worthless due to some incredible behind the scenes power plays by the Fed and others.
The rumor was the recent spikes in oil was to pay back some very pissed off folk.
If I had followed my instinct, I would have made an absolutely scandalous killing.
If you play your cards carefully, the current dollar situation offers the best opportunity for anyone to retire early and live well. Stagger those contracts...
Verne
p.s. Mark that stock looks like a good buy...

[David Mauldin]

   I talked to a guy last December. He and his wife have their own seperate investments in the same stocks.  "She gets a feeling to sell but I said "No" I think I will give it some time!"   WORLDCOM!!!!!!

[vernecarty]

Well...it looks like the bounce I anticipated on Monday is materialising today.
I guess those on the sidelines were not enticed back in on Moday despite what must have been some big institutional buying to keep the market virtually sideways.
It's up 48 points at 10:30 but I am definitely sceptical. Methinks some folk have in mind locking in some profits. I still like about 9200 or thereabouts...
Verne

p.s. Yep! yep! yep! If you want to make a little money folks, short the market...easy cash...

[David Mauldin]

   Last nights meeting was very interesting.  I learned that I am required to attend seminars at my own expense!  Its O.K. I am learning a lot and its fun.  Hope to be living in a beach front property soon!!! Vern I am a newbee  What/how does one "short the market"?

[vernecarty]

   Vern I am a newbee  What/how does one "short the market"?

I do not recommend this for a beginner. I do not recommend it without a "buy- stop" order, for keep in mind that when you bet that a stock will decline (shorting the stock), it could theoretically rise indefinitely!
Here is the gist:
The short sale of stock is a bet that the price of that stock will decline. Here are the mechanics. You decide that stock "Geftakys and Sons"  (GAS) at a price of $110 is at or near its peak. You feel that Geftakys and Sons" will decline in price from this level. So you want to short the stock. You tell your broker you want to short 100 shares of "GAS" at 110. You borrow from your broker 100 shares of "GAS" at $110 and sell it to someone else.

This is the nature of the short sale. You're selling something which you borrowed. Again, you borrowed 100 shares of "GAS" at $110 and sold it to someone else. You actually borrowed the 100 shares of GAS from your stockbroker. He either has it in inventory or he borrowed it from a client or another brokerage firm. Either way, it is your broker who loans you the stock to sell to someone else.

So now what happens. Hopefully, the price of GAS goes down for you. Let's say that GAS declines to $85. At 85, you decide that GAS may not decline much further, if at all. So you want to take your profits. How do you do that? You now buy 100 shares of GAS at $85 and pay your broker back the 100 shares of GAS. You borrowed the stock at 110 and paid it back at 85. You made $25 per share in profit or $2,500. You sold the borrowed stock for $11,000 and bought it back for $8,500.

Conversely, suppose the price of GAS goes up to $125. The investor would have sold the stock for $11,000 and now might want to get out of the position. He would now have to go into the market and buy 100 shares of GAS for $12,500. He would then be returning the loaned stock at $12,500. In this case, he has a loss of $1,250.


Capisce? 
Verne

p.s I am serious about the buy-stop (or GTC: good- till- cancelled) precaution. If you want to try this, start with only a few shares and do your homework...
p.s. A lot of folk supposedly shorted the market (to the tune of hundreds of millions) just before 9/11.
The rumor is that the money was not collected and the records have been sanitized...remember how many brookerage firms lost data?...just a rumor mind you...

[vernecarty]

O.K People...If you have an on-line account with Ameritrade, the morons have lost a back-up take filled with personal information on a couple of hundred thousand account holders.
This is not good, not good at all. They are whining about the fact that this is all the fault of some third party vendor but that is not good enough. I recently got an invitation to open an account in exchange for a nice palm pilot and wondered what was up. This happened back in February and they are just now getting around to divulging the fact that this tape is missing. These people do not deserve your confidence in my humble opinon. If you have an account with them you should get the heck out...
Verne

[vernecarty]

The biggest one-day "rally" since 2003 huh?
Well, it certainly did not last more than a day.
I still say the fundamentals are lousy, rosy earnings reports notwithstanding.
While the current evaluations are better than they have been for some time, I still think the market is substantially over-valued. Short 'em! 
Verne

[David Mauldin]

Thanks for the advice.  Yet I am not experienced enough at this time.  I am currently looking for another Martha Stewart deal!  My wife and I are having dinner with an investor in two weeks.  I will ask her about shorts!  Every Friday night we walk anong the beach and admire thy neighbors houses!

[vernecarty]

Thanks for the advice.  Yet I am not experienced enough at this time.  I am currently looking for another Martha Stewart deal!  My wife and I are having dinner with an investor in two weeks.  I will ask her about shorts!  Every Friday night we walk anong the beach and admire thy neighbors houses!

It is very important to dream big David. Some believers have been sold a bill of goods on this score.
Not all desire is covetous, and a natural consequence of doing and being your very best is material prosperity.
This has nothing to do with religion per se.
In all your success, do not neglect to acknowledge the One Who is the giver of very good and perfect gift...
Verne

p.s you should see the plans I've got for my three acres in the V.I; God willing of course...

[Mark C.]

Hi eager Traders! 

  No, I am not Joe's friend Burt from Barstow (who is always trying to sell something to the unsuspecting) but I would like to receive a little praise for my last stock pick of the week, Oregon Steel (OS) 

    Up over 2 bucks last week! 

  Okay---- My next pick of the week is especially for Dave M., as he requested another nice mover:   Salem Brodcasting (symbol= SALM).   The stock is a growth play, vs. a value one like OS.

   Re. shorting:  Fine explanation by Verne, but I would like to add that when shorting stock you have to pay a tick for the privilege.  This means you have to give up a point, along with any commissions or fees that you have for the trade.

    You can use options, without giving up that tick, and the only risk is the cost of the option.  For instance, you could write a covered call, if you still own Martha, by selling someone an option to buy Martha at a higher price.  If Martha tanks the option expires worthless to the buyer and you pocket the premium, but if the price rises your rising stock price compensates for the rising price of the option.

  You could also just outright purchase a "put" option (this is the same as selling short a stock, in that your option value increases as the price goes down).  Options have expiration dates, and as this date approaches the time value erodes, but if the stock price moves your way the option will increase in it's intrinsic value.

    There's a lot more to this, strategy wise, but I'm just pointing out that there are ways to hedge your bets, if you are going to try to get into trading to make a killing. 

   The best advice that I can give is to avoid becoming a trader (which I must admit I am) and instead become an investor.  A trader is a gambler, while an investor is cautiouslly diversified.  I trade for fun, and because it is a challenge, but keep the bulk of my savings in a safe diversified portfolio.

    Right now I'm trading soybean futures and I'm using options.  I've been doing this for about ten years now and at one time thought I would become a millionare doing this!  The potential to make big money is there, but it ain't easy.  After ten years I figure I'm about even  .

    It cost $950.00 to put on the option spread for the month of Sept., and that is all the money that I can lose from the trade.  It has a potential to make $4,000, if all works perfect, but it never does!  At this point am up about $400.00 on the trade and will let you know how it proceeds.

  Don't forget to check out SALM David M., as this is a stock I would really like to see you get into  .

                                                     God Bless,  Mark C.

[vernecarty]

Hi eager Traders! 

  No, I am not Joe's friend Burt from Barstow (who is always trying to sell something to the unsuspecting) but I would like to receive a little praise for my last stock pick of the week, Oregon Steel (OS) 

    Up over 2 bucks last week! 

  Okay---- My next pick of the week is especially for Dave M., as he requested another nice mover:   Salem Brodcasting (symbol= SALM).   The stock is a growth play, vs. a value one like OS.

   Re. shorting:  Fine explanation by Verne, but I would like to add that when shorting stock you have to pay a tick for the privilege.  This means you have to give up a point, along with any commissions or fees that you have for the trade.

    You can use options, without giving up that tick, and the only risk is the cost of the option.  For instance, you could write a covered call, if you still own Martha, by selling someone an option to buy Martha at a higher price.  If Martha tanks the option expires worthless to the buyer and you pocket the premium, but if the price rises your rising stock price compensates for the rising price of the option.

  You could also just outright purchase a "put" option (this is the same as selling short a stock, in that your option value increases as the price goes down).  Options have expiration dates, and as this date approaches the time value erodes, but if the stock price moves your way the option will increase in it's intrinsic value.

    There's a lot more to this, strategy wise, but I'm just pointing out that there are ways to hedge your bets, if you are going to try to get into trading to make a killing. 

   The best advice that I can give is to avoid becoming a trader (which I must admit I am) and instead become an investor.  A trader is a gambler, while an investor is cautiouslly diversified.  I trade for fun, and because it is a challenge, but keep the bulk of my savings in a safe diversified portfolio.

    Right now I'm trading soybean futures and I'm using options.  I've been doing this for about ten years now and at one time thought I would become a millionare doing this!  The potential to make big money is there, but it ain't easy.  After ten years I figure I'm about even  .

    It cost $950.00 to put on the option spread for the month of Sept., and that is all the money that I can lose from the trade.  It has a potential to make $4,000, if all works perfect, but it never does!  At this point am up about $400.00 on the trade and will let you know how it proceeds.

  Don't forget to check out SALM David M., as this is a stock I would really like to see you get into  .

                                                     God Bless,  Mark C.

Good point Mark. As we all know, you cannot say the word "broker" without fees and commissions coming hard and fast behind...!
Great call on OS. At that evaluation I was really tempted to pick up a couple K worth just for laughs...
Do you know the high and low for Salem the last 24?
What kind of upside potential do you see there?
(Bill me!  )
Verne