STOCKS

[David Mauldin]

   At the moment I am taking CLAD classes to help second language learners. I feel as if I qualify as 2LL when it comes to what you are trying to communicate to me.  But thanks!  I am learning a lot and hope to catch up to where you guys soon!  Vern, I have a clear conscience, while my wife and I are walking down the beach and I just happen to see a nice looking mansion, I turn to her and say, "Honey" "I would buy that house for you if I could!" (It is just an innocent expression of my selfless love and devotion towards her!) and if I happen to see a relatively cheaper looking house in the same area I say, "I would be perfectly happy living in that cheap house over there!" (Another sign of selfless humility!)  and Marc, I agree with your advice. I have 4 retirement plans going all very secure. (Except S.S.) I am a gambler but not with anything that would hurt if I lost it!  Right now I am playing with 25 grand. This money was part of the 15 from Martha and some from a real estate investment that made me 7 times what I paid!  Gambling is fun!!!!  But I will admit very stupid!!!!  Oh by the way what do you think about the lottery?

P.S. Pam (My wife) doesn't believe my motives are really that pure but that's O.K. The Lord knows those that are His!

[vernecarty]

   At the moment I am taking CLAD classes to help second language learners. I feel as if I qualify as 2LL when it comes to what you are trying to communicate to me.  But thanks!  I am learning a lot and hope to catch up to where you guys soon!  Vern, I have a clear conscience, while my wife and I are walking down the beach and I just happen to see a nice looking mansion, I turn to her and say, "Honey" "I would buy that house for you if I could!" (It is just an innocent expression of my selfless love and devotion towards her!) and if I happen to see a relatively cheaper looking house in the same area I say, "I would be perfectly happy living in that cheap house over there!" (Another sign of selfless humility!)

Good for you my friend. I just love browsing through Architectural Digest and Home and Garden. In our case fantasizing about a behemoth house is kinda silly as we only have two kids and before we know it they will  be off to college.
There is just something about attractive well-built living space! The thing that has kept us in relatively modest quarters is that even if we were to buy our dream house cash on the barrrel head, we would still be in hock to the state for R.E.T to the tune of ten grand a year! Thanks but no thanks. That puts too much of a dent in one's cash flow if you know what I mean...
Best of luck with your investment decisions. Concervative is good. The bulk of my shekels are now in a stable return fund yielding a measly 3 per cen annually...a very safe 3 per cent 
Verne

[Mark C.]

Verne,

  Salem broadcasting has a 52 wk. high of $33.10 and a low of 18.90.  It is not a value play as it has a very high P/E at 66 plus.

  It is trading near it's low right now at 19 plus, but it's profit outlook for the next year is .84 while it's last year saw .51.

  It is experiencing a lot of volatility right now and is a gun-slinger's trade right now.

  I like the company's potential and what their expanding programing is capable of in the future.  I usually lean toward value stocks, but thought David M. might want to check this one out as he learns to trade stocks.  It would be a philosophically contrarian play for him  .

   You will have to suffer from the up's and down's on this one, but I think patience will be rewarded by the end of next year.  Since it is trading at it's low for the year it looks like a good time to get in.  Potential to exceed last year's high is in place ,and if so would make for a doubling of stock price.

                                                 God Bless our speculations ( ),  Mark C.

[vernecarty]

Verne,

  Salem broadcasting has a 52 wk. high of $33.10 and a low of 18.90.  It is not a value play as it has a very high P/E at 66 plus.

  It is trading near it's low right now at 19 plus, but it's profit outlook for the next year is .84 while it's last year saw .51.

  It is experiencing a lot of volatility right now and is a gun-slinger's trade right now.

  I like the company's potential and what their expanding programing is capable of in the future.  I usually lean toward value stocks, but thought David M. might want to check this one out as he learns to trade stocks.  It would be a philosophically contrarian play for him  .

   You will have to suffer from the up's and down's on this one, but I think patience will be rewarded by the end of next year.  Since it is trading at it's low for the year it looks like a good time to get in.  Potential to exceed last year's high is in place ,and if so would make for a doubling of stock price.

                                                 God Bless our speculations ( ),  Mark C.

Well, I just might pick up a hundred shares for the fun of it...thank for the info my good man! 
Verne

p.s.  would I have to give you a finder's fee if it turns out to be a doubler? 

[Mark C.]

Hi Verne,

  Check out first what kind of broadcasting Salem does before you pull the trigger.  This will explain what I mean when I suggested that this would be a "philosophically contrarian play" on David's part  .

  If you do well with this stock (which I haven't bought yet btw) the only fee I will require is an invitation to visit your BVI spread when you get done with it. 

  Since you live in the Midwest if you could manage to keep the rain going for the next month and follow it with three months of drought I will be able to buy a place next door to yours with my soybean profits !

                                             God Bless,  Mark C.

                 

[David Mauldin]

I will also check this out with my club members!  Thanks!  Keep em coming!

[vernecarty]

Hi Verne,

  Check out first what kind of broadcasting Salem does before you pull the trigger.  This will explain what I mean when I suggested that this would be a "philosophically contrarian play" on David's part  .

  If you do well with this stock (which I haven't bought yet btw) the only fee I will require is an invitation to visit your BVI spread when you get done with it. 

  Since you live in the Midwest if you could manage to keep the rain going for the next month and follow it with three months of drought I will be able to buy a place next door to yours with my soybean profits !

                                             God Bless,  Mark C.

                 

Hey Mark:
I have been watching those soybean numbers. Looks like the bears are making a run. I hope you are still ahead...
Verne

[Mark C.]

Thanks for watching Verne!

  I do not hold an outright long futures contract that goes up and down with the market, but have what is called a "bull spread" using options on futures.

  I purchased one Sept. 640 call option and sold one 720 call option in the same month.  These prices are called "strikes": Sept. is at about 626 right now, and as the price rises the value on the above options increase.

  When the price of the market reaches my strike the value will increase at a greater rate than the one I sold at the higher strike.  The spread between the two prices will increase in my favor and allow for a profit.  If it goes right up to expiration then the 720, if still below that strike, will expire worthless while the one "in the money" will have intrinsic value of about $4,000.

  If beans just go down and never reach my strike I keep the premium for the sale of the 720 and lose the premium I paid for the 640.  All it will take is one weather scare this summer to tack on another dollar to the price and make me some dough.

  As to your private message:  I read it and am aware of the situation.

   Bad day for Oregon Steel today  !  Keep watching, or maybe buy a little at this point.  You need nerves of steel to hang in with these value stocks.

                                         God Bless,  Mark C.

[vernecarty]

Sophisticated trading my friend. I think you are sitting pretty.
Well folks, wil tomorrow be the day that we smash through the DOW 10K floor??!!
I think it should have happened long ago and that some folks are playing us for suckers.
The Chinese are rumored to be getting ready to reposition themselves vis a vis the U.S dolllar.
Something's gotta give...
Verne

[David Mauldin]

O.K. bro we shall see!!!

[Mark C.]

Verne,

  Nah, if a truck driver can figure it out then anyone can! --- I still love to talk this stuff though.

        MARK'S STOCK PICK OF THE WEEK

  AMCC :  A chip company from the San Diego area that has super great valuations---- the P/E is almost the exact price of the stock!  Just announced a good quarter with increased profit, and is trading for less than $3.00 now.

  You will have to be patient with these value stocks, as in a 3 to 5 year holding pattern, but I think you will be rewarded for the wait.  I am going to buy some of this next week and will let you know how it goes. 

  I noticed Oregon Steel has been like a roller coaster (seems to mimic the DOW and energy stocks).   If you've got the nerve this still has great fundamentals and in a few years it could easily double in price from where it is now.  (notice how I said "could"-----  This is a famous trick of financial advisers as an out when they ruin their clients portfolio!!

     Gold stocks have tanked (I have some BGO- Bema gold--- a Canadian company Marcia!) and should have followed my own advice and sold half when it doubled in price (from $2.00 to $4.00) in a year's time.  I still think gold will make a move up in the next couple of months and so it might be good to have a little exposure to this area.  BGO has made some great discoveries, but it remains to be seen if they are more than just great prospectors and can actually run a company!

    Disclaimer: Don't follow advice from truck drivers on BB's who won't even follow the things they recommend to others .

                                              God bless, Mark C.

   

[vernecarty]

Verne,

  Nah, if a truck driver can figure it out then anyone can! --- I still love to talk this stuff though.

     
                                              God bless, Mark C.

   

Me too man!
Don't you just love it when they are interviewing some stock guru making grand statements about how great a particular group of stocks are, and then end the interview by asking:

So, are any of those stocks in your portfolio?

and some of 'em get this dumbfounded look on ther faces?! 
Verne

[David Mauldin]

  Mark, I remember the Gold market back in the early 80's.  I have wondered if were are headed toward something similar. (The devalueing of the dollar). Why are you expecting it to go up?  Vern great call!  I really enjoy reading your post.  You guys seem to be doing your homework! Can I copy?? I honestly don't know anything about all of this stuff. The Interact curriculum I mentioned on another thread has a unit on stocks!  If I was teaching 6th grade I would do it just to learn for myself! Pam and I are having dinner with a financial advisor May 10. I think we are going to hear a shpeal about "How to get rich quick"  Any experience with these kinds of people I should know about??

[Mark C.]

Hi David!

  Gold is a commodity, and I have a better feel for commodities vs. trying to figure out all that goes into what makes a good stock investment; companies are very complicated, but supply and demand fundamentals are easy.  I believe gold will go up based on certain basic fundamentals such as rising interest rates.  I think every investor should have a little gold as a hedge against a possible major disruptive event in the World (Great Trib.?)

   Re. financial advisors:  No one can predict the future (even me  ) and I firmly believe that you should not spend one cent unless you understand what you're being sold, and what the total cost of the investment will be.

   Some of these advisors sell investments with huge loads (sales charges).  They promise a high interest return and then the loads and expenses for the investment eat up a huge amount of the profit.

  Watch out for how they compare the performance of the instrument they are pushing.  If they compare it to the S&P, it is below water right now, and as such anything else could look positive.

   I would advise learning and investing on your own.  You can begin by paper trading (following stocks, etc. without putting any money in and seeing how it goes).  After this start small, keep diversified, and you will do at least as well as a mutual fund (mostly because you only have commissions to pay on your own-- my Scottrade account charges $7.00 a a trade.)

  Be more of an investor than a trader by not buying on margin and looking mostly for deep value stocks to buy with a 3 to 5 year window.  Of course, if the stock starts to fall below 10% best to unload it------ you can't pick all winners all the time.

   Go ahead, once in a while, and pick a growth stock, but trail it with sell-stops as it moves up.

                                              God Bless,  Mark C.

[vernecarty]

It looks like declining oil futures shored things up on Friday along with some slightly better than expected eranings statements. I am guessing a lot of the up-tick also had to do with folks with less than the courage of their convictions covering their hinies...er...short positions, (not a bad idea actually) 
Well, Monday is another day huh?  Expect the Fed to tighten on Tuesday.
Verne